Smart Investing Today – Your Stock Market Market Digest
Investors keeping powder dry, as macro data and geopolitics drive markets
Investors spent much of late last week digesting Wednesday’s equity market reset in hopes that the Trump trade remains intact. As a result, equity prices barely held on, closing within a fraction of Wednesday’s close. As I have mentioned over the past three weeks, my sense is that the momentum trade that has rifled equity prices higher since early November has dissipated, while equity market gains have stalled.
What’s Making Wall Street Weak?
Last week, US crude oil May futures fell 2.7%, and natural gas April futures rose 4.3%. The broad market S&P 500 Index fell 1.3%.
Frontier’s Burn Last Week: The Story behind the Story
US-based tech firm Frontier Communications (FTR) saw its stock drop 15.4% last week (ended March 24, 2017), after falling 10% on March 22 alone.
Precious Metals Snapshot
- Gold Spot Price: $1,257.00 per ounce
- Silver Spot Price: $18.26 per ounce
- Platinum Spot Price: $959.80 per ounce
- Palladium Spot Price: $793.90 per ounce
Gold & Silver Spotlight
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) share price is $119.53, which is 2.6% above its 50-day exponential moving average of $116.51
The RSI is 65.86 which suggests that SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is technicallyneither overbought nor oversold.
Based on the share price being above its 5, 20 & 50 day exponential moving averages, the current trend is considered strongly bullish and GLD is experiencing slight selling pressure.
According to the MACD, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) is currently on a Sell Signal.
Over the next 4 weeks, SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has on average historically risen by 1.1% based on the past 12 years of stock performance.
SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has risen higherby an average 1.1%in 7 of those 12 years over the subsequent 4 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 58%
SPDR Silver Shares (SLV) share price is $17.15, which is 3.6% above its 50-day exponential moving average of $16.56
The RSI is 63.52 which suggests that SPDR Silver Shares (SLV) is technicallyneither overbought nor oversold.
Based on the share price being above its 5, 20 & 50 day exponential moving averages, the current trend is considered strongly bullish and SLV is experiencing buying pressure, which is a positive indicator for future bullish movement.
According to the MACD, SPDR Silver Shares (SLV) is currently on a Sell Signal.
Over the next 4 weeks, SPDR Silver Shares (SLV) has on average historically risen by 0.9% based on the past 10 years of stock performance.
SPDR Silver Shares (SLV) has risen higherby an average 0.9%in 4 of those 10 years over the subsequent 4 week period,corresponding to a historical probability of 40%
Trending Stocks On The Move
BLUEBIRD BIO INC (BLUE) share price is $94.05, which is 5% above its 8-day exponential moving average of $89.61
BLUEBIRD BIO INC (BLUE) share price is $94.05, which is 15.4% above its 50-day exponential moving average of $81.52
According to the MACD, BLUEBIRD BIO INC (BLUE) is currently on a Sell Signal.
ANI PHARMACEUTICALS INC (ANIP) share price is $48.5, which is 3.8% above its 8-day exponential moving average of $46.74
ANI PHARMACEUTICALS INC (ANIP) share price is $48.5, which is 9.8% below its 50-day exponential moving average of $53.75
According to the MACD, ANI PHARMACEUTICALS INC (ANIP) is currently on a Sell Signal.
Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (ACHC) share price is $44.04, which is 5.6% above its 8-day exponential moving average of $41.71
Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (ACHC) share price is $44.04, which is 7.3% above its 50-day exponential moving average of $41.05
According to the MACD, Acadia Healthcare Company, Inc. (ACHC) is currently on a Sell Signal.
The VIX figure is 12.50. This is 28.7% below the historic median figure of 17.54.
The CBOE Volatility Index® (VIX®) is a key measure of market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 stock index option prices. Historically, VIX levels above 50 correlate closely with periods of stock market panic while VIX levels below 20 are more typical during relatively calm periods in the market.
The 10,000 Foot Economic View
Total Market Cap / GDP
Chart for Total Market Cap / GDP
The ratio of the Total Market Capitalization (Wilshire 5000) to United States GDP is 1.2926. This is 46.9% above the historic median figure of 0.88.
The higher the Market Cap/GDP figure is relative to its median level, the higher the perceived risk in the market. Markets can remain overvalued for extended time periods.
The S&P Earnings is 94.59. This is 69.4% above the historic median figure of 55.84.
The higher the S&P Earnings are above their median level, the higher the perceived risk in the market.
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